Techno-economic uncertainty quantification and robust design optimization of hydrothermal and CO2-based geothermal systems
Project Details
Program
Earth Science and Engineering
Field of Study
Earth Science and Engineering - Geothermal energy and Co2 utilization and geological storage
Division
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Faculty Lab Link
Center Affiliation
Ali I. Al-Naimi Petroleum Engineering Research Center
Project Description
The viability and sustainability of geothermal energy development are subject to several reservoir (subsurface) and economic parameter uncertainties. Determining the optimal operational parameters of the geothermal system, in the presence of uncertainty, require hundreds, if not thousands, of permutations of the different uncertain or naturally variable reservoir, operational and economic parameters for any specific hydrothermal system.
The key task of this project is to quantify reservoir and economic uncertainties and to examine their effects on the techno-economic performance of the hydrothermal doublet system. What are the ranges of permissible reservoir conditions (parameters) to render a geothermal system economically viable? What are the trade-offs between these parameters? What are the ‘acceptable uncertainties’ and the ‘optimized values’ for a geothermal-energy producer in the economic decision-making? These kinds of questions will be addressed in this project, by means of scanning the related parameter-space via a very large number of numerical simulations, to then derive first-order ‘reduced model metrics’ that help to derive simplified decision-making quantities.
In this study, we will develop a novel generalized non-dimensional expression of power generation over time to characterize the optimal operational parameters for various combinations of the reservoir parameters, and to determine which combination of the parameters depletes the reservoir heat the fastest. This methodology will further be applied to evaluate and compare the performance of geothermal systems that use in-situ brine or (sequestered) CO2 as the heat-extraction fluid, with emphasis on Saudi Arabia’s geological and economic conditions.
Finite element/volume simulators such as TOUGH2/3, DARTS, or CMG, and wellbore-power system models will be used to conduct comprehensive simulations and to stochastically assess the system’s power and lifetime based on a range of available subsurface parameters (e.g., depth, thickness, permeability, porosity, permeability anisotropy), operational parameters (e.g., flow rate, injection temperature, well spacing) and economic parameters (e.g., drilling cost, heat cost, electricity cost, etc.).
The candidate must have the willingness to learn basic geoscience and reservoir engineering concepts. Affinity with programming (preferably MATLAB/Python) and Paraview or related visualization tools is an advantage.
About the Researcher
Paul Mai
Professor, Earth Science and Engineering
Affiliations
Education Profile
- Ph.D. Stanford University, USA, 2001
- M.S. University of Karlsruhe, Germany,1995
- B.S. University of Karlsruhe, Germany,1991
Research Interests
Multi-scale earthquake phenomena: from data-driven experimental studies to HPC-enabled forward simulationsPhysics-based ground-motion simulations for seismic & tsunami hazard applicationsSeismic waves in inhomogeneous media: scattering simulations and imaging Earth structureA Engineering seismology, seismic hazard assessment, and coupled natural hazards (tsunamis, landslides)Geothermal energy for Saudi Arabia: low-enthalpy geothermal energy system in Red Sea rift basinsa€‹Selected Publications
- Palgunadi, K. H., A.-A. Gabriel, T. Ulrich, J. A. LA³pez-Comino, and P. M. Mai (2020). Dynamic Fault Interaction during a Fluid-Injection-Induced Earthquake: The 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang Event, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., doi: 10.1785/0120200106
- Mai, P.M. (2019). Supershear tsunami disaster, Nature Geoscience, Feb 04, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0308-8
- Tang, Z. P. M. Mai, S.-J. Chang, H. Zahran(2018). Evidence for crustal low shear-wave speed in western Saudi Arabia from multi-scale fundamental-mode Rayleigh-wave group-velocity tomography, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 495 (2018) 24a-37, doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.05.011
- Galis, M., J.-P. Ampuero, P. M. Mai, F. Cappa (2017). Induced seismicity provides insight into why earthquake ruptures stop, Science Advances, 2017;3: eaap7528From: Carolina M. Trigueiros
- Thingbaijam, K.K.S., P.M. Mai and K. Goda (2017). New empirical earthquake source scaling laws, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 107, No. 5, pp. 2225a-2246, October 2017, doi: 10.1785/0120170017.
- Mai, P.M., M. Galis, K. Thingbaijam, J. Vyas, and E. Dunham (2017). Accounting for fault roughness in pseudo-dynamic ground-motion simulations, Pure and Applied Geophysics, published online April 03, 2017, DOI 10.1007/s00024-017-1536-8
- Zielke, O., M. Galis, and P. M. Mai (2017). Fault roughness and strength heterogeneity control earthquake size and stress drop, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44,doi:10.1002/2016GL071700.
- Mai, P.M.,and K.K.S Thingbaijam (2014). SRCMOD: An online database of finite-fault rupture model,Seis. Res. Lett., Vol 85, No 6, p 1348 -1357, doi: 10.1785/0220140077
- Missimer, T.M., P. M. Mai & N. Ghaffour (2014). A new assessment of combined geothermal electric generation and desalination in western Saudi Arabia: targeted hot spot development, Desalination andWater Treatment, DOI: 10.1080/19443994.2014.939868
- Gabriel, A.A., J.-P. Ampuero, L.A. Dalguer, and P.M.Mai (2012). The Transition of Dynamic Rupture Modes in Elastic Media, J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 117, B09311, doi:10.1029/2012JB009468, 2012
- Hillers, G., P.M. Mai, Y. Ben-Zion, and J.-P. Ampuero (2007). Statistical properties of seismicity of fault zones at different evolutionary stages, Geophys. J. Int., Geophys. J. Int.,169, 515a-533 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03275.x
- Mai, P.M., and G.C. Beroza (2002). A spatial random-field model to characterize complexity in earthquake slip, J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 107(B11), 2308, doi:10.1029/2001JB000588.
Desired Project Deliverables
The intern will (i) carry out a literature study to compile a range of relevant subsurface inputs, (ii) build a parameterizable 3D reservoir model for the simulation of the geothermal system, (iii) develop an economic model for geothermal energy development in Saudi Arabia and, (iv) perform numerical simulations for optimization and uncertainty quantification of hydrothermal and CO2-based geothermal systems.
Recommended Student Background
Geoscience
Civil/Petroleum/Mechanical
Computer Science/Applied Mathematics
Energy Science